Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal to Inter-annual Timescales (APPOSITE)

To what extent is it possible to predict changes in the Arctic environment, and how is this best done? Predicting the Arctic environment in the short and medium term would be useful to numerous groups of people, including local policymakers, indigenous populations and decisionmakers around the world trying to understand the impact of changes in the Arctic on their regions. Given the significant effects of high-latitude climate on mid- and lower latitudes, the ability to make confident predictions of developments in the high North is highly desirable.

But how attainable is this goal? A wide range of observation systems are needed to monitor Arctic climate, and sophisticated modelling work is required to process this information and extract useful predictions. Before committing to such a costly and complex programme, APPOSITE aims to investigate how feasible it actually is to predict Arctic climate.